全球光伏市场展望Global market for 2020 to 2024 for solar power GMO

sarah-zhang

Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2020–2024,
The return of the global solar market to two-digit growth rates in 2019 signaled a positive trajectory for the sector. But in 2020, the solar world looks very different: the COVID-19 pandemic has not spared the solar power sector. This year, new solar grid connections are expected to drop the first time in many years. Now it is of utmost importance that governments do not disregard renewables and solar power when developing economic stimulus packages. If the world is serious about meeting the Paris Agreement climate targets, solar deployments not only need to get back on their recent growth track, but the installation rate of solar, the lowest-cost and most versatile power generation technology, must increase much faster, in the short- and mid-term.
This year’s Global Market Outlook presents the first results of a worldwide survey conducted in April by the Global Solar Council on the impacts of COVID-19 on solar – over 71% of polled solar businesses reported a decline in orders, of which 6 in 10 said that orders were down by up to 50%, and 3 in 10 experienced a decline of 50–90% (see, p. 63). The effect of the pandemic on installation rates varies in different countries and segments, largely depending on how badly the countries suffered from COVID-19, and the response of governments.
We estimate in our Medium Scenario that new global installed capacities will decrease by 4% to 112 GW in 2020. Compared to our forecasting in last year’s Global Market Outlook, when we projected as much as 144 GW of new solar, this represents a loss of 32 GW.
In comparison, 2019 was a successful year for solar. Demand grew by 13% to 116.9 GW, and it would have increased further if the world’s largest market, China, had not continued restructuring efforts, resulting in an even stronger drop in demand than the year before, and India, the world’s third largest PV market, also declined for multiple reasons. One key takeaway from the study: solar demand continues its diversification process. As the number of countries that strongly embrace solar increases, it reduces the risk that market contractions in major solar countries depresses the entire sector.
To provide better insights into the world’s most-promising markets, we have again invited leading national solar associations of GW-scale solar markets – 16 in 2019, up from 11 in 2018 (see p. 69) – and received support from GET.invest for a chapter on Sub-Saharan Africa, our first time focusing on an emerging on-grid solar region (see p. 35). We would like to warmly thank all of our contributors.
Another important lesson learned: the cost competitiveness of solar continues to improve rapidly. While solar has been outcompeting most other power generation technologies for years, depending on the region, it is now entering a new frontier. Many awarded solar tariffs in tenders in 2019 were in the 2 US cent/kWh range, however, there were also auctions with winners in the 1 US cent/kWh range on three continents. As our technology overview on p. 55 shows, there are a broad variety of solar innovations to further improve solar power generation devices.
The industry has been working hard to make solar the lowest-cost power generation technology, and it is now on policymakers to provide the appropriate frameworks so that all of society can benefit from flexible and clean solar. While the virus has taken its toll on solar’s development, the recovery packages are a big chance to enable this sustainable technology to return even stronger.
Enjoy reading our Global Market Outlook,




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